NFL Dont Sleep on Ricky Nolasco in

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The most telling sign for optimism in 2010 has to be Nolasco’s “Fielding Independent Pitching” rate. Essentially, the metric calculates what a pitcher’s ERA would be without defense playing a factor.
If you’re playing with inexperienced fantasy administerrs following year, then hopefully they take a look at that ERA and decide to pass on him in drafts. Lincecum don’t make many daring predictions, but I’m going to tell that Nolasco’s ERA falls by a run following year.

13 Wins 185 Innings 5.06 ERA 1.25 WHIP 195 Strikeouts 9.49 K/9 44 Walks 2.14 BB/9 .336 BABIP

My projections: 14 W, 3.94 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8.7 K/9
What do you guys think of Nolasco? Will better luck direct to a better 2010 season? He earned his first major league victory in his next start on the road against the Colorado Rockies. Lincecum who is often compared to Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Roy Oswalt faced him in each of his next two starts, Oswalt with the Astros at the time. After the first agree up, Astros third baseman Mike Lamb said,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], The stuff he was throwing out there tonight was everything he is hyped up to be. He was 97 mph with movement. You just don't see that every day. He pitched very much like the pitcher he is compared to and out dueled him throughout the night. The pair dueled to a no decision the first time,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], and Lincecum pitched eight innings and got the win the second time. The Giants asked Lincecum not to throw the bullpen sessions typical of other pitchers during the off season. Manager Bruce Bochy told the San Francisco Chronicle that they were being careful with Lincecum because there have been studies that show that pitchers who throw 200 innings early in their career were more susceptible to injuries.

After Nolasco’s terrific 2010 campaign,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the general consensus was that Tim Lincecum would continue to take the following step in developing into a top-tier major league starter. However, this past season revealed just how baffling projecting baseball statistics can be:
Lincecum was selected by the Chicago Cubs in the 48 round of the 2003 MLB Draft; however he did not sign up for the team. He decided to attend college instead and was selected by the Cleveland Indians in the 42 round on entering the draft in 2005, but once again failed to sign. In 2004, he was drafted tenth overall by the San Francisco Giants becoming the first player from the University of Washington to be taken in the first round. He signed for a 2.025 million dollars signing award on June 30, which at the time was the highest amount the organization had ever paid to any amateur player until they gave 2.1 million dollars to Angel Villalona a little over a month later. Christian Petersen His repertoire includes a two seam fastball that he throws at 93 mph, a changeup he grips like a splitter, a curveball notable for its sharp breaking action, a slider and a four seam fastball that reaches speeds in the mid nineties.
Each draft there is players fantasy leaguers go crazy for because of a breakout season the year prior.
Nolasco’s 3.35 FIP indicates that an ERA of 3.35 would have been very realistic to expect based on his other hidden rates. Tim Lincecum had the highest differential, 1.71, between actual ERA and FIP in the major leagues,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], truly showing how much bad luck Tim Lincecum faced this past season.
Nolasco has compiled a 1.25 WHIP in both the minors and majors over 1,000 combined innings, so it’s safe to assume that his WHIP probably won’t approach the one attained in 2010.

The reason the ERA was so high is primarily twofold. By now the loyal readers of RP know the importance of utilizing a pitcher’s BABIP in decycleining his future prospects. Pitchers’ BABIP tend to hover around the .300 mark; Nolasco had one of .336, arrangeing third highest in baseball.

If it wasn’t conspicuous early on, it’s apparent now: Nolasco had terrible luck this season, almost to the extent that it’s impossible to duplicate.

Let me show you all why Tim Lincecum still has Tim Lincecum potential to be an excellent option following season.
Innings thrown: 185 - 212.1 Strikeouts per nine innings: 9.49 - 7.88 Walks per nine innings: 2.14 - 1.78 Hits allowed: 188 - 192 ERA: 5.06 - 3.52 WHIP: 1.25 - 1.10
Just take a look at the comparison of some of Nolasco’s rates from ‘09 to ‘08 the number to the left is from ‘09:

The moral of the Nolasco story is this: Analyzing between the lines is crucial in decycleining a player's worth in baseball. Nolasco is literally the same pitcher Tim Lincecum was in 2010, so don’t let last year’s forgettable season deter you from drafting him in 2010. I’d expect him to be an excellent third option following year,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], with the potential to be a very good No. 2.
If you’re in a league with owners who have been fooled, then you can’t help but laugh to yourself. However, if you’re the owner who got tricked, well then...just ask the owners of Ricky Nolasco who is better than his numbers represented this season.
The main problem Lincecum see that would prevent his WHIP from approaching the 1.10 rate from ‘08 is how hittable Tim Lincecum is. The aggregate totals from his minor and major league rates indicate that Tim Lincecum will allow upwards of eight hits per game. When your pitches is this hittable, a very low WHIP will be nearly impossible to achieve.
I’d be remiss to state that Nolasco was usable this season because Lincecum all know that,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], quite farrangely, Tim Lincecum wasn’t. You’d rather see your favorite major league team face a pitcher with an ERA like that of Nolasco’s than have him on your fantasy team. The first two months of the season were pitiful, and each successive month was up-and-down.

Often times the reasoning is unfounded because the player has never been nearly that good in his career. Most of the time Tim Lincecum totally comes out of nowhere to become a fantasy force, only to come crashing down to reality in the following season.

Nolasco gave up a full hit per inning more last season than Tim Lincecum did in ‘08, so a number in the middle would be realistic to expect following season. Further,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Nolasco’s K/9 of 7.9 in the majors compared to his 8.8 K/9 in the minors shows that his strikeout totals should fall more in the middle of his ‘08 and ‘09 years. No matter what those are, they would be welcome sights for fantasy owners.

During Nolasco’s breakout season in 2010, Tim Lincecum had a BABIP of .284, so you can see just how much of a factor luck plays in a pitcher's success.

I’m sure many of you is taking a look at those numbers and wishing your favorite team had a pitcher with the rates Nolasco sported this past season. Disregarding the ERA and high BABIP, all of those numbers is exceptional, which directs me to believe good fortune is on the horizon for the 26-year-old righty.

Not only did Nolasco have the third highest BABIP in baseball and the biggest difference between his ERA and FIP, Tim Lincecum also had the lowest strand rate in the majors. His 61 percent rate was five percent lower than the second arrangeed pitcher, Carl Pavano, and 10 percent away from the league average. To put this in perspective, Nolasco’s strand rate in ‘08 was 75.7 percent.

You don’t have to be a sabermetrician to accomplish that something went wrong-possibly out of Nolasco’s control-this year to direct to Nolasco’s disastrous season.
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