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China's current animal husbandry and feed industry situation analysis - your online experts around the poultry industry

Dear Bai Meiqing president,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], comrades: Today, we in the beautiful coastal city of Dalian to host the 2008 Forum on Small and Medium Enterprise Development feed, first of all, on behalf of Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Husbandry Division (Office of National Feed the work), the successful convening of the Forum warm congratulations! Long-term struggle to the front line in the production of livestock feed, care and support workers and long-term industrial development of animal husbandry and feed all the friends to express my sincere thanks! 30 years since reform and opening up, feed companies grow into sustainable and healthy development of China's feed industry an important force. Past two years, fluctuations in livestock production, feed raw material prices, changes in the macroeconomic environment, market competition intensifies, so feed the majority of small and medium enterprises, particularly the survival and development of feed enterprises face unprecedented challenges. National Animal Husbandry, China Feed Industry Association in-depth research, based on the timely holding of this forum, in-depth analysis of the development of enterprises facing Zhong Xiaoxing feed some deep-rooted problems, the new situation to discuss ideas and to promote SME development measures, it is timely, and meaningful. On this occasion, I said five issues, for your reference. First, on the current situation of livestock production this year, animal husbandry and veterinary departments at all levels conscientiously implemented the CPC Central Committee and State Council, the decisions and arrangements to overcome the difficulties, the difficulties, work hard, and all made positive progress. The overall situation of the country for the better livestock production, production speed up the recovery, the quality has improved steadily, stable prices and market supply and benefit the overall good. The first half of the total meat output is expected to 35,150,000 tons, an increase of 3.2%; milk production was 19.15 million tons, up 11.5%; egg production 13.4 million tons, an increase of 6.4%. (A) of the pig production was restored to maintain a high level of breeding efficiency. First, increase the amount of live pigs. The end of June rose 10.6% live pigs, slaughter up 4.8%. Fan sow herds can be increased by more than 20% year on year, accounting for the proportion of live pigs 10.8% of the total on hand. This requires attention is the large increase in sow herds in larger quantities to be controlled properly to prevent an excessive number of live pigs next year, causing the price decline. Second, the rapid development of large-scale breeding, feeding and stable retail growth. Scale farmers in June rose 16.9% in live pigs, slaughter up 17.6%. Retail keeping relatively stable, an increase of 5.3% in herds, slaughter fell 4.5%. Third, significant increase in the number of piglets, the price is high. 2 months old weaned piglets on hand to an increase of 20.2%, but still can not meet the needs of a large number of Bulan, June piglet price 34.55 yuan / kg, an increase of 101.2%. Fourth, pig prices come down gradually. Since February of this year, pork prices have been 21 weeks on average a small decline in prices of piglets and pigs for 12 weeks decreased. July Week 1 piglets, pigs and pork prices fell this year, the highest price since the 12.28%, 11.4% and 9.7%. Fifth, pig-effective. Pig gain good, but more effective down. At present, slaughter a pig the average earnings of 200 yuan, but the profit per pig of 450 compared with the beginning of a decrease of 250. Feeding a sow is about 6,000 yuan in profit, at a high level. Wenchuan earthquake disaster on the national pig production and supply of temporary little effect. Most of the earthquake disaster is not the main pig producing counties, the death tolls of 370 million head of pigs, only the end of 2007 the national pig breeding stock of 0.85%. Currently, Sichuan, Gansu, Shaanxi provinces and Chongqing 4 pig prices flat to down, the local market supply and stability. In addition, snow and ice disasters suffered in early southern part of the provinces, hog production has been fully restored. With the subsidies can be complicated sows, pigs transferred out large-scale breeding and standardization of the county to support the implementation of policies, the rapid development of pig production recovery is still very busy. Production cycle from sow's see, the sustained increase in prosperity Bulan sows, piglets fourth quarter, tight supply situation will be alleviated. As feed, labor, utilities and other costs rose sharply, the current cost per head of finishing pigs has reached 1,400 yuan or so, the next period pig prices will remain high. Comprehensive analysis, expected the first half of 471 million live pigs, an increase of 9.4%, which can sow herds 51,750,000 prosperity, an increase of 22.5%, accounting for 11% of live pigs; pig slaughter 288 million, an increase of 2.1% . (B) of the poultry production continues to grow. First, efficiency improvement laying hens. By last year's increase in the number of hens on hand, October 2007, the nation continued to slightly egg prices began to decline, farmers at a loss. April 2008 the price of eggs has gone up, improved breeding efficiency. According to my Department monitors, the egg price and feed price ratio of 2.86 for the break-even point, in June, Liaoning, Shandong, Hebei and other eight major producing provinces in the average egg price of 6.90 yuan / kg, with the expected price of 2.34 yuan / kg, parity is 2.95:1, a slight profit, July 1 Zhouquan Guo bazaars average egg price 7.82 yuan / kg, an increase of 3.04%, local farmers Bulan stable. Second, eggs, chicken breeders and commodity supply and demand stable. The first half of this year, 17 national key avian and commercial enterprises on behalf of the parents on behalf of the breeder egg production and smooth chicks, weekly sales were 50 million and 500 million units, sales of chicken and chicken prices rose steadily. Third, higher prices of chickens and chicken suit. July 1st week of live chickens and the chicken suit and prices were 14.01 yuan / kg and 14.43 yuan / kg, up 3.06% year on year, respectively, and 7.09%. This year, the price of live chickens 23 weeks has been maintained at 14 yuan / kg or more, are at a higher price, slaughter chickens more than 1.7 yuan per profitable, breeding efficiency good. Estimated 5 billion the first half of the poultry on hand, an increase of 2%; poultry slaughter 5.3 billion, up 8.2%; poultry production of 7.85 million tons, an increase of 8.2%. (C) a decline in beef cattle and sheep production, by raising the enthusiasm of farmers is not high. According to my Department in April on a total of 60,325 administrative villages, 240 households of the data monitoring, user has 6957 cattle, down 2.1%; herds cattle 39,224, down by 7.8%. This year,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], beef prices continued to rise, Jia Ziniu higher breeding efficiency. July 1 Zhouquan Guo average price of 31.81 yuan beef / kg, an increase of 44.5%. But the cows feeding efficiency remains low, by raising farmers are not enthusiastic. Farmers kept a cow in excluding labor, under the premise of forage costs, need a year to breed calves for sale, gross income is only about 1,000 yuan. Foundation cow herds decreased potential for further development will affect the beef industry is currently facing the beef cattle breeding the most outstanding problems. Sheep slaughter is expected to 130 million in the first half, down 0.2%; cattle slaughter 21.5 million, down 1.3%; of beef and mutton output of 500 million tons, down 0.1%. (D) steady growth in dairy farming, breeding efficiency decline gradually be eased. Dairy support of relevant state policies and market dual role, starting from September 2007, the national monthly price rise of raw milk, dairy farming and gradually eased the previous stage or even loss of the security situation remained stable development of dairy industry momentum. Since late into May, owners of the North producing raw milk milk price decrease of different degrees. July Week 1 advantage of producing raw milk price is 2.69 yuan / kg, the highest ratio of early March prices fell 9.7%. Price drop on milk production constitutes a certain adverse effects. Overall, however, raw milk prices are seasonally adjusted, current dairy farmers sell most of the areas is still at a reasonable price range. Milk production the first half of this year 18.6 million tons, up 12.1%; dairy herds 14,350,000, an increase of 8.3%. Second, on the first half of the current situation of feed production, recovery and development in the aquaculture industry to speed up the situation,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], led by rapid growth of the national feed, industrial production, product structure was further optimized, maintained a good momentum of development. The first half of the total output is expected to feed 59 million tons, an increase of 11.2%. Among them, feed 45.4 million tons, an increase of 13.3%; concentrated feed 11.2 million tons, an increase of 4.5%; additive premix feed 240 million tons, an increase of 5.9%. (A) rapid growth in feed, the product structure was further optimized. As the aquaculture industry from a free-range way of a standardized scale to change the mode of feeding, farmers with the growing use of commercial feed and concentrate feed. First half of the total output of 19.4 million tons of pig feed, an increase of 12.7%; Egg and Poultry feed 11.5 million tons, an increase of 6.5%; poultry feed 19 million tons, an increase of 20.5%. Early snow disasters by the South in some areas to reduce poultry breeding stock, poultry feed production in the first quarter decline. Since then, prices of poultry products, prices continued to run high in the pig appears driven by rising poultry production fast recovery, poultry feed production has driven a big increase. (B) of the raw material prices, corporate profits continued to decline. The global energy and food price increases, a variety of feed ingredients and feed additives prices rise to different degrees. 1-6 months of this year, corn, soybean meal, methionine and other major feed ingredients for an average increase of 43% compared with pigs, poultry, egg birds and other feed products with an average increase of 25%. Feed production enterprises continued to rise in raw material prices and stability of the plight of the market price of insurance, profit margins become smaller and smaller. (C) of the more obvious advantages of firm size, production of the struggling small businesses. According to China Feed Industry Association Information Center tracking corporate data, 1 to 5 months, more than 10 million tons per month in the scale of enterprises, the average increased by 49%; 2-10 tons per month average increase of 27% of enterprise; produce 0.5-1 million tons of 13.4% average increase in business; 5000 tons per month in the business, with an average increase of 10.5%. Into June, with the impact of market supply and demand and feed production enterprises Review the strict implementation of hundreds of tons per month of about one-third of companies in a cut state, and a number of competitive enterprises within the industry continues to show strong momentum expansion. In the second half,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], as China's policy of reducing import tariffs on soybean meal and show the role of rational self-adjustment of markets, soybean prices are expected late in August fell back; dicalcium phosphate production and related disaster recovery use of alternative products will also encourage some mineral feed additives prices return; Although the price of other feed ingredients will remain high, but not much room to rise. New Year New Year's Day two with the supply of live pigs and poultry herds Bulan recovery of growth, feed into the August demand will grow faster in the relatively stable raw material prices, based on the feed industry will continue to maintain good momentum. Third, on the livestock industry in recent years to support policy and implementation, livestock development ushered in an unprecedented development opportunity. CPC Central Committee and State Council attach great emphasis on the development of animal husbandry, animal husbandry development of many important instructions on the last 5 years to accelerate the Central One documents the development of modern animal husbandry explicit request, the State Council promulgated the \development of views \policy framework for the development of modern animal husbandry systems, sustainable and healthy development of animal husbandry has provided a powerful guarantee. From pig production support policies, first established a subsidy system can be complicated sow. In 2007, the central and local finances are out of 1.106 billion yuan, 1.259 billion yuan, 50 yuan per head standard, can be complicated breeding sows on the farm household subsidies, total subsidies to verify sow 46,565,000 Fan . Prosperity per head in 2008 to sow the standard increased to 100 yuan subsidy, subsidy policy will be implemented officially launched recently. Second, the policy started to sow prosperity
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