News Analysis Few surprises expected in Bosnian g

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On the eve of the general elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) on Sunday, it appears that few people are holding their breath in anticipation of the outcome.
Despite widespread disappointment with their leaders, it appears the citizens of this ethnically-fractured Balkan country will be returning most of the same political personalities and parties to power.
"The last four years have been lost for BiH. It is true that opinion polls show that, more or less, the same political parties will enter the Parliament," said Valentin Inzko, International High Representative and the EU's Special Representative for BiH.
In a country where ethnic politics always seems to trump the more pragmatic concerns of its citizens, election campaigns have focused on hardening the nationalist messages to attract votes. In fact, in BiH there are really three concurrent general elections being waged, each one reflecting the interests of its targeted ethnic community: Bosnian Muslim (Bosniak), Serb or Croat.
On Sunday, Bosnians will vote for their ethnic representatives in the tripartite presidency, a central parliament and the assemblies of the two autonomous entities: Republika Srpska (RS), the Serb-dominated half of BiH, and the Federation of BiH, shared by Bosniaks and Croats. In addition, those in the Federation will choose representatives for one of 10 cantons. There are approximately 1.2 million eligible voters in RS and 1.9 million in the Federation.
The complex electoral system is a product of the Dayton Accord in 1995 that brought about an end to the bloody civil war waged by the national groups during the disintegration of the former Yugoslavia.
While 87 percent of respondents to an Ipsos survey conducted prior to the election campaign indicated that BiH was "moving in the wrong direction" and only two percent said they considered inter-ethnic problems and nationalism in BiH the country's most serious problem, political campaigns have almost exclusively tapped the ethnic agenda.
"Pre-election promises come down to nationalistic statements, inter-ethnic and entity differences based on 'us versus them,'" said Ivana Korajlic of Transparency International BiH. "Everything comes down to ethnic-based rhetoric and unrealistic promises,Wedding dresses," she added.
The Alumni Association Center for Interdisciplinary Postgraduate Studies in Sarajevo (ACIPS), researching the first 10 days of the election campaign, concluded that almost 70 percent of the messages were spent on "irrelevant issues and rhetoric." ACIPS also coined the phrase "three campaigns under one roof" to aptly describe the divided ethnic perceptions of the general election in BiH.
The election race within the Bosniak community is potentially the most interesting, with a possible upset from political outsider and media-owner Fahrudin Radoncic. He is competing with incumbent Bosniak President Haris Silajdzic, also the current favorite in recent polls, and with Bakir Izetbegovic, son of Alija Izetbegovic, the founder of the country's largest Bosniak political party (SDA) and former president. Each candidate has a hardcore following within different segments of the Bosniak population.
In a convoluted political strategy which exemplifies BiH's hybrid election process, the best chances for Radoncic are reportedly for a large number of Bosniaks to vote for the Croat representative of the collective presidency.
While Zeljko Komsic of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) received only 5 percent of the vote from Croats in BiH, he was elected to represent them in the presidency in 2006. This situation was brought about by Bosniak voters using their numerical superiority to cast ballots in favor of Komsic. Citizens are permitted to vote only once for president, but can choose to support a candidate from another ethnic group.
The logic behind the potential upset by Radoncic is linked to the perceived need to direct Bosniak votes toward the Komsic campaign. With enough votes siphoned away to ensure Komsic's victory, the more established Bosniak political parties could lose sufficient support, which would benefit Radoncic's campaign.
Within the Bosnian Serb entity there should be no surprises, according to the polls. The election result is expected to reshuffle some of the political personalities but give a clear majority to the leading political party, the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD).
Milorad Dodic, the current prime minister, is expected to win the presidency of RS,Tiffany Jewelry, the Serb-dominated entity. For the Serb candidate of BiH's collective presidency, Nebojsa Radmanovic also maintains a majority in the polls.
Barring a surprising upset by Radoncic, the results on Sunday would be a return of the same politicians who personified the antagonist ethnic politics of the preceding mandate. For the European Union and NATO, which were promoting the formation of governments more amenable to institutional reforms in BiH, this cannot be interpreted as a positive signal.
In the days leading up to Sunday's vote, the foreign ministers of Britain and Germany, William Hague and Guido Westerwelle, had sought to bolster reform-minded candidates by releasing a joint statement, where they accused the current political leadership in BiH of prioritizing "localism, nationalism and narrow interests rather than the welfare of all the people of this country."